1. Market Wrap: Bitcoin Drops Ahead of Looming ‘Death Cross’
Bitcoin’s ‘death cross’ could increase selling pressure into the weekend.
Bitcoin declined about 5% over the past 24-hours as the price broke below $36,000 support. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is still up about 23% year-to-date, although some traders are concerned about the looming ‘death cross,’ which could indicate a shift from a bullish to bearish price trend.
The death-cross is defined by a cross of the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average, which could occur over the weekend.
Still, some analysts remain bullish on bitcoin relative to equities.
“When the equity tide pulls back someday, we expect bitcoin and gold to be the primary beneficiaries,” wrote Mike McGlone, commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence in a Friday report.
Bitcoin (BTC) $35469, -5.92%
Ether (ETH) $2166.02, -7.15%
S&P 500: 4166.45, -1.31 %
Gold $1769.37, -0.19%
10-year Treasury yielded 1.437%, versus 1.52% on Thursday
Technical backdrop weakens
“The recent stabilization just isn’t sufficient to suggest buying dips,” wrote Mark Newton, founder of Newton Advisors told us.
Newton’s cycle work points to continued weakness this year. “For those who are aggressive traders, any break of 30k should lead down to 20–25k and that should be a better area to consider buying dips for a bounce,” Newton wrote.
And for ether, Newton expects a volatile decline over the next one or two weeks given the break below prior lows.
2. Bitcoin Remains Relatively Resilient Post-Fed as Fiat Currencies Drop Against Dollar
Bitcoin remains relatively resilient, having priced in the Fed’s hawkish tilt in advance.
Bitcoin is trading in familiar ranges even as the U.S. dollar gains ground in currency markets on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate outlook.
While the top cryptocurrency has dropped 5% to $38,000 since Wednesday’s Fed rate guidance, it remains locked in a multi-week range of $30,000 to $40,000.
In contrast, the dollar index, which tracks the greenback’s value against the euro, pound, yen and other major currencies, rose above 92.00 early today, reaching its highest level since April, according to TradingView data. Gold and base metals have also taken a beating since Wednesday, pushing commodity currencies like the Australian dollar lower.
The U.S. dollar’s rally follows an unexpected hawkish tilt at the Fed. On Wednesday, the central bank brought forward projections for the first post-pandemic interest-rate hikes into 2023, challenging the consensus for a weaker dollar for the rest of the year.
One possible explanation for bitcoin’s resilience could be that the cryptocurrency was relatively oversold heading into the Fed’s announcement, as QCP Capital noted in its Telegram channel.
3. Grayscale Brings 13 More Tokens With DeFi Focus Under Consideration
The 13 include 1inch, Bancor, Curve, Polygon and 0x.
Crypto-asset manager Grayscale has added 13 tokens to those under consideration for investment products, most of which are concerned decentralized finance (DeFi).
The 13 include 1inch, Bancor, Curve, Polygon and 0x (ZRX, -3.38%), Grayscale announced in a tweet Thursday.
The additions bring the total assets being considered to 31, following from an initial list announced in February.
Grayscale stressed that not all will be turned into investment products, which requires a significant due process and would be subject to custody arrangements and regulatory considerations.
Five from the February list have led to the creation of investment products: Basic Attention Token, Chainlink, Decentraland, Filecoin and Livepeer.
4. Bitcoin Bounce Falls Short at Resistance, Support at $30K-$34K
BTC buyers struggled near $40K resistance this week. Upside appears to be limited.
The relief rally from the June 8 low of about $31,000 was short-lived as buyers struggled near $40,000 resistance this week. Bitcoin (BTC) is stuck in a monthlong consolidation phase and could face downside pressure into the weekend.
The daily price chart shows a series of lower price highs since April, which suggests sellers are in control. Initial support is seen at $34,000 and then at $30,000, although upside appears to be limited given the downward sloping 50-day moving average.
Bitcoin was trading around $37,900 at press time and is down about 3% over the past 24-hours.
The consolidation phase lacks upside momentum, which, at this moment, does not confirm a decisive bottom in bitcoin.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is rising from an initial oversold reading on May 19. However, the weekly RSI is not yet oversold, which could keep sellers active toward lower support levels.
Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact, although a significant loss of momentum over the past few months suggests an extended period of drawdowns similar to the previous bear market in 2018.
5. The Infinite Tomato Economy
A satirical tweet about the compounding return on planting tomatoes reveals a lot about contemporary tech culture.
It’s been another wild week, so let’s ease back to talk about something entertainingly dumb: This tweet from Thursday about how to turn $50 into $3.9m in two years by planting tomatoes.
It’s very hard to know where to start with this. It’s a kind of nth-dimensional object melding hustle-culture brain rot and venture capital pitch-deck anti-math. It encapsulates some of the most pernicious ideas of our economic era, particularly the fetishization of “scale” and a total, unexamined contempt for actual labor. The author’s unrestrained self-importance and manifest ineptitude at real-world business thinking, all while trying to sell himself as a business and investing coach, would be completely at home in the most shameless corners of the crypto hype machine.
Obviously the proposal itself doesn’t make a lick of sense, starting with the fact that you can’t sell most tomatoes for a dollar. Twitter user @keewa was even more incisive, writing that the scheme assumes “infinite growth within a finite system.” In other words, this makes sense only if you assume you don’t need anywhere to plant the tomatoes, or anyone to pick them, or really any inputs whatsoever except seeds.
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June 19, 2021